Sudan: Clear guarantees needed before referendum

Source: Refugees International (RI) - The report "Renewing the Pledge" released yesterday by a group of 26 international NGOs and civil society organizations highlighted the urgency of renewed international attention to Sudan. With less than six months to go before referenda in south Sudan and Abyei determine whether they remain united with the north, there is a laundry list of priority issues that still need to be resolved. There is a multitude of international actors involved in pushing the overall peace process in Sudan forward, who are invested in seeing through the final stages of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) between north and south Sudan. Yet time is short, progress is slow, and the fate of many Sudanese hangs in the balance.

Among the long list of referendum-related priorities, much attention has been paid to high profile issues such as an agreement on oil revenue sharing if the south secedes. The south holds the majority of the oil, while the pipeline infrastructure runs through the north. While this matter is critically important and, if left unresolved, could be a significant trigger of north/south conflict, the issue of citizenship is equally explosive from a humanitarian perspective.

On a recent mission to Sudan, Refugees International met with displaced communities of southerners in Khartoum state who expressed serious concern about what their lives would be like if south Sudan separated. Many of these southerners have lived in the north for decades, attending schools or raising families. Many complained of facing discrimination, such as the overly harsh application of Sharia law to non-Muslims, in contravention of the terms of the CPA. Many southerners RI spoke to in Khartoum feared a backlash against them if the south separated. Indeed, there is a serious separatist streak among some NCP officials, who view this referendum not as a threat but as a golden opportunity to send non-believers packing. While not all NCP officials may see things this way, the question will be whether such a hard line view gains currency among the broader Sudanese public and ultimately prevails, in the emotional turmoil and political rhetoric surrounding separation.

In the worst case scenario, the January 2011 referendum could spark the forced expulsion of southerners from the north and northerners from the south. The number of southerners in the north is hard to know with certainty but is estimated at about 1.5 to 2 million people. If such a large group suddenly picks up and moves south, with zero preparation to receive them and no plans or resources for reintegration into southern communities, it will be a disaster of immense proportions and will further destabilize what will no doubt be an already extremely volatile time.

"Renewing the Pledge" highlights the need for the governments in the north and south to make clear, public commitments to upholding the rights of minority communities, in case of secession. Ultimately the governments of both the north and south have the right and the responsibility to decide their own long term citizenship criteria. But this is a complicated task, itself fraught with politics, emotion and considerable lack of trust on both sides. It may take a long time to negotiate. Unfortunately, time is not on anyone's side.

For this reason, RI has called for the U.S. and other international actors to push the parties to make clear guarantees before the referendum that minority rights will be respected and no forced expulsions will take place, even if complete citizenship agreements are not reached by January. Not only will this hopefully ease some concern among minority communities, such as the displaced southerners RI spoke to, it will also provide a basis upon which the international community can hold either side to account for actions in violation of these guarantees.