Source: International Crisis Group (ICG)Bishkek/Brussels, 23 August 2010: Without prompt, genuine and exhaustive measures to address the damage done by the pogroms, Kyrgyzstan risks another round of terrible violence.
The Pogroms in Kyrgyzstan,* the latest report from the International Crisis Group, highlights the risk of spiralling violence in the south of Kyrgyzstan and the central government's loss of control over the region. It calls for the Kyrgyz government to support an internationally backed enquiry into the pogroms which took place in May and June 2010 in Jalalabad and in Osh. It also urges the international community to form a united front in calling on the Kyrgyz government to address the root causes of the violence, and in warning the country's leadership of the dangers of inaction and denial.
"The violence and pogroms of June have further deepened the gulf between ethnic Kyrgyz and Uzbeks", says Paul Quinn-Judge, Crisis Group's Central Asia Project Director. "If this problem remains unaddressed, another explosion is only a matter of time, and in the next outburst, the victimised party could look to Islamist radicals for help, or violence could spread to other ethnic groups – Russians, Uighur, Tatar or Dungan".
Successive governments have failed to address ethnic tensions in the south or even to admit their existence. Many features of the 2010 violence strongly resemble the last round of bloody ethnic clashes, in 1990. One of the most striking differences, however, is that twenty years ago, a large number of elite Soviet troops were deployed in the region for six months to normalise the situation. This time, a weaker government facing a greater challenge has refused any external help, unrealistically arguing that it can handle the situation itself. In fact, the government has now lost control of a significant part of southern Kyrgyzstan, where the mayor of Osh, Melis Myrzakmatov, publicly rejects the president's authority.
The Kyrgyz government should take a strong public stand against positions of extreme nationalism by prominent national and regional politicians. The government of Kyrgyzstan, as well as donors and supporters, should support a full, open and internationally backed enquiry into the recent pogroms.
Given the weakness of the Kyrgyz government, responsibility rests upon the shoulders of the international community. It should play a more forthright role than usual in raising the long-term dangers to Kyrgyzstan of extremism, the need to restore the central government's political control over the city of Osh, and the urgent necessity of reconciliation between ethnic communities. It also needs to draw up a blueprint for establishing a long-term modus vivendi between the majority Kyrgyz and ethnic minorities, Uzbeks and others. This should include a unified strategy for the reconstruction of the south, involving extensive on-the-ground monitoring, the recognition of cultural sensitivities and the need to avoid worsening conflict risks.
"If the south remains outside of central control, there is a strong risk that the narcotics trade, already an important factor, could extend its power still further", says Robert Templer, Crisis Group's Asia Program Director. "Without decisive action by the international community, the region could also quickly become a welcoming environment for Islamist guerrillas".
*Read the full Crisis Group report on our website: http://www.crisisgroup.org
