By Jaya Ramachandran Republished courtesy of IDN-InDepth NewsAnalysis
BRUSSELS (IDN) - The strategic Central Asian state of Kyrgyzstan needs "prompt, genuine and exhaustive measures" to address the damage done by the pogroms in May and June 2010, without which the landlocked country risks another round of terrible violence, says a new report.
The report by the eminent International Crisis Group highlights the risk of spiralling violence in the south of the country and also on the central government's loss of control over the region. In a new report, it calls for the Kyrgyz government to support an internationally backed enquiry into the pogroms which took place in Jalalabad and in Osh.
The report also urges the international community to form a united front in calling on the Kyrgyz government to address the root causes of the violence, and in warning the country's leadership of the dangers of inaction and denial.
"The violence and pogroms of June have further deepened the gulf between ethnic Kyrgyz and Uzbeks," says Paul Quinn-Judge, Crisis Group's Central Asia Project Director.
An explosion of violence, destruction and looting in southern Kyrgyzstan from June 11 to 14, 2010 killed many hundreds of people, mostly Uzbeks, destroyed over 2000 buildings, mostly homes, and deepened the gulf between the country’s ethnic Kyrgyz and Uzbeks.
It was further proof of the near total ineffectiveness of the provisional government that overthrew President Kurmanbek Bakiyev in April 2010, and is now trying to guide the country to general elections in October. "Given the government's slowness to address the causes and consequences of the violence, the danger of another explosion is high," says the report.
"If this problem remains unaddressed, another explosion is only a matter of time, and in the next outburst, the victimised party could look to Islamist radicals for help, or violence could spread to other ethnic groups -- Russians, Uighur, Tatar or Dungan," warns the report.
Titled 'The Pogroms in Kyrgyzstan', the report points out that successive governments have failed to address ethnic tensions in the south or even to admit their existence. Many features of the 2010 violence strongly resemble the last round of bloody ethnic clashes, in 1990.
It adds. "One of the most striking differences, however, is that twenty years ago, a large number of elite Soviet troops were deployed in the region for six months to normalise the situation. This time, a weaker government facing a greater challenge has refused any external help, unrealistically arguing that it can handle the situation itself."
In fact, the government has now lost control of a significant part of southern Kyrgyzstan, where the mayor of Osh, Melis Myrzakmatov, publicly rejects the president’s authority. A ruthless and resolute young nationalist leader, Myrzakmatov has emerged from the bloodshed with his political strength, and his extremist credentials, stronger than ever, and is now the south's pivotal political figure.
In view of this, the report sees a strong risk that any attempt at investigation or even reconciliation will be subordinated to many politicians' desire to enlist his support for the October elections. "The government seems reluctant to challenge this nationalist mood, which it clearly feels is popular within the majority Kyrgyz community," it adds.
The International Crisis Group asks the Kyrgyz government to take a strong public stand against positions of extreme nationalism by prominent national and regional politicians. "The government of Kyrgyzstan, as well as donors and supporters, should support a full, open and internationally backed enquiry into the recent pogroms," says the report.
Considering the weakness of the Kyrgyz government, responsibility rests upon the shoulders of the international community, which should play a more forthright role than usual in raising attention to the long-term dangers to Kyrgyzstan of extremism, the need to restore the central government’s political control over the city of Osh, and the urgent necessity of reconciliation between ethnic communities.
The international community also needs to draw up a blueprint for establishing a long-term modus vivendi between the majority Kyrgyz and ethnic minorities, Uzbeks and others. This, says the report, should include a unified strategy for the reconstruction of the south, involving extensive on-the-ground monitoring, the recognition of cultural sensitivities and the need to avoid worsening conflict risks.
“If the south remains outside of central control, there is a strong risk that the narcotics trade, already an important factor, could extend its power still further," says Robert Templer, Crisis Group's Asia Program Director. "Without decisive action by the international community, the region could also quickly become a welcoming environment for Islamist guerrillas."
Though the government blames external elements, including Islamic militants, the pogroms in fact involved many forces, from the remnants of the Bakiyev political machine to prominent mainstream politicians and organised crime, especially the narcotics trade.
Most of the violence took place in Osh, Kyrgyzstan’s southern capital, with a less bloody outburst in and around the region's other main city, Jalalabad. The forces that stand behind the violence have not yet been fully identified.
This is unlikely to happen without an exhaustive and professional international investigation. Certain things are, however, clear. Although the profound belief in the Uzbek community that the pogroms were a state-planned attack on them is not borne out by the facts, there are strong indications that prominent political figures, particularly in Osh city, were actively, perhaps decisively, involved.
Most security forces in the region, who in Osh currently answer to local leaders rather than the capital, were slow to act or complicit in the violence. The pattern of violence in Osh moreover suggests a coordinated strategy; it is unlikely the marauders were spontaneously responding to events.
The criterion that guided looters in all the districts attacked was ethnic, not economic. June's violence had been prefigured by serious ethnic and political tension in Jalalabad in May. At the time, however, this was largely ignored by the central government and the international community.
Without mincing words, the International Crisis Group says: "The international community’s response to the crisis was inglorious. Most countries deferred to Russia, which declined to send peacekeepers and has since predicted the country’s disintegration. The UN Security Council did nothing.
"The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) deployed with laudable speed, while key UN agencies were initially frustrated by internal security rules that even some senior UN officials felt were excessively constricting -- and which played into the hands of local officials in Osh who appeared keen to limit the number of outsiders in the area. Looting of aid convoys was a serious problem for some time after the Osh authorities announced that order had been restored."
RECOMMENDATIONS
The report recommends to the Government of Kyrgyzstan to:
-- Support a full, open and internationally backed enquiry into the events in May 2010 in Jalalabad, and June in Osh and Jalalabad.
-- Take a strong public stand against positions of extreme nationalism and ethnic exclusivity put forward by prominent national and regional politicians.
-- Cooperate with and support immediate deployment of OSCE police mission to Osh, international humanitarian organisations and diplomatic presence to reduce the likelihood of new violence.
It asks the international community to:
-- Call for and support a thorough enquiry into the events of May-June 2010, with central roles assigned to international organisations with expertise in this field such as the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights and the OSCE High Commissioner on National Minorities. Make it clear that further aid to the Kyrgyz government will be conditional upon such an investigation.
-- Elaborate a unified strategy for the reconstruction of the south, involving extensive on-ground monitoring – including the early deployment to Osh of the OSCE police mission and other international humanitarian and diplomatic observers – the recognition of cultural sensitivities and the need to avoid worsening conflict risks.
-- Ensure that no international aid funds go to the Osh government as long as it advocates an exclusionary ethnic policy and refuses to submit to the authority of the central government.
--- Engage in a long-term program of police reform and training, sweeping reforms of the judiciary and legal system.
--- Start the process of seeking a framework for the equitable coexistence of all ethnic groups in Kyrgyzstan.
The members of the UN Security Council, in particular the U.S. and Russia are asked to undertake active contingency planning on a priority basis, jointly and severally as appropriate, so that in the event of another explosion in the south threatening lives and the stability of Kyrgyzstan and the Central Asia region, the international community or key members and institutions will be in a position to respond in a timely and effective manner.
Kyrgyzstan, officially the Kyrgyz Republic is one of the six independent Turkic states together with Turkey, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. Located in Central Asia, landlocked and mountainous, Kyrgyzstan is bordered by Kazakhstan to the north, Uzbekistan to the west, Tajikistan to the southwest and China to the east.
