Laurent GbagboBy Alemayehu G. Mariam*
Courtesy IDN-InDepth NewsViewpoint
SAN BERNARDINO, USA (IDN) - If the Ivory Coast, one of the most prosperous African countries, can be considered a template for political change on the continent, democracy can replace dictatorship only by means of a civil war.
For the past five months, Laurent Gbagbo, the loser of the November 2010 Ivory Coast presidential race has been holed up in his palace defiantly clinging to power. He claims to have won the election by order of his handpicked "Constitutional Council", even though the Ivorian Electoral Commission declared his challenger Alassane Ouattara the winner.
Underlying Gbagbo's electoral shenanigans to cling to power at any cost is a lingering and recurrent problem in African politics: Rigged, stolen and shell-gamed elections. African dictators set up elections just like the streetwise scammer sets up a shell game. African dictators know they will "win" the elections they set up by hook or crook.
But they go through elaborate ceremonies to make the phony elections look real. They set up shills and call them "opposition parties". They jail the real opposition leaders and intimidate their supporters. They trot out their handpicked "elections commissions" and put them on public display as independent observers to bless and legitimize the rigged elections.
To please and hoodwink their Western donor benefactors, they being in international elections observers, adopt "election codes of conduct" and stage make-believe public debates. The outcome never changes: The African con artist dictators always win!
Well, maybe not always. On the rarest occasions, by some fluke an incumbent African dictator is defeated by a challenger despite massive election rigging and fraud. Even more incredibly, the whole world sides with the challenger winner. Then all hell breaks loose as it is happening today in the Ivory Coast. Gbagbo lost despite ballot-stuffing, ballot-shredding, ballot-stealing, voter intimidation and voting fraud.
For all African dictators, elections are an intolerable nuisance on their permanent clutch on power. They play the elections game because the international donors and multilateral banks make it a precondition for handouts and loans. Truth be told, neither the dictators nor the donors/banks are interested in genuine democratic elections as evidenced in many Wikileaks cablegrams. They want an election show to justify their immoral support for the criminal thugs.
'NOT READY FOR DEMOCRACY'
The dictators, donors and multilateral banks agree on one unitary principle so plainly and honestly articulated by former French President Jacques Chirac: "Africa is not ready for democracy" (a government of the people, by the people for the people). That is why so many African countries wallow in thugtatorships (a government of thieves, by thieves for thieves).
The manifest implications of this electoral shell game for the people of Africa are frightening. There can be no peaceful transfer of power through a democratic election. If a challenger wins an election against an incumbent dictator fair and square, the challenger must be prepared to use force to remove the incumbent. Strange as it may sound, it may even be necessary to fight a full blown civil war to replace African dictatorships with African democracy. That seems to be the seminal lesson of the Ivory Coast which finds itself in a creeping civil war because Gbagbo has made peaceful transition impossible.
Over the past week, Ouattara's "Republican Forces" have swept southwards from their bases in the north and seized the capital Yamoussoukro and the major port of San Pedro. They are now encircling the commercial capital Abidjan. Gbagbo's army and civilian supporters have been fighting it out in the streets of Abidjan for months. Gbagbo has recruited an army of unemployed and illiterate youths in Abidjan to "defend the country, which is under attack from foreigners", namely Ivorians from the north.
The ordinary people of the Ivory Coast are paying the price for a democracy betrayed. The number of innocent civilians killed increases by the dozens each day. The International Committee of the Red Cross recently reported the massacre of over 1,000 people in the western town of Duekoue. The perpetrators are alleged to be retreating Gbagbo soldiers who shot or hacked their victims to death with machetes.
Since the elections in December 2010, over a million Ivorians have been internally displaced and over one hundred thousand have fled to Liberia. The great commercial city of Abidjan with over four million people is said to be a virtual ghost town. Street thugs are pillaging the city as Gbagbo blames the U.N. and the West for the bloodshed and civil war in the country.
THE SHELL GAME
Africa's incumbent dictators will always win the elections they manufacture. They will win by hook or crook, and by incredibly absurd percentages. Meles Zenawi, the capricious dictator in Ethiopia, declared that his party won the May 2010 parliamentary election by 99.6. Such a claim may sound laughable and absurd to the reasonable mind, but it has a Gobellian logic to it. The Nazi propaganda minister said, "If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it." Goebbels' boss said, "The bigger the lie, the more it will be believed."
To claim 100 percent or 99.6 percent of the people voted for one party is absurd, but repeated many times, the sheer audacity of such a bold-faced lie renders the listener speechless, dumbfounded and numb. Similarly, Gbagbo says he won the presidential election despite unanimous international opinion to the contrary. Elections are window-dressing exercises for thugtatorships.
When African dictators lose by some strange fluke, they will demonize a segment of their citizens and embark on a campaign to denigrate their critics and opponents just to cling to power. History Professor Gbagbo declared Ivorians from the northern part of that country "foreigners", including Ouattara, and rejected the outcome of the election as invalid. Gbagbo has also targeted the large population of migrant workers in the country with xenophobic and hateful rhetoric.
When the European Election Observer Mission declared that the May 2010 election in Ethiopia "fell below international standards", Zenawi attacked the Mission with a torrent of insult straight from the gutter. He described the EU report as a "pack of lies and innuendoes" and "garbage". He dismissively added that the EU report was "just the view of some Western neo-liberals who are unhappy about the strength of the ruling party."
African dictators will exploit ethnic, religious and regional divisions to cling to power. Gbagbo has been promoting a nasty ideology called "Ivoirité" to exclude and marginalize northern Muslims from national political office. The ideology is based on the notion that there are "real" Ivorians ('indigenous Ivorians') and foreigners who pretend to be Ivorians by immigration or ancestry (false Ivorians). By creating such insidious classifications, Ivorians from the north have been denied basic citizenship rights.
Africa's dictators have a love-hate relationship with the West. They are quick to blame the West for their political problems. Yet, they are always standing at the gate begging for handouts. It is a case of the dog that bites the hand that feeds it. Gbagbo blames France, the UN and the U.S. for his country's civil war. Zenawi blames the EU "neoliberals" for his bogus election victory. Mugabe blames Britain and the U.S. for his country's political and economic woes.
In all of the political turmoil and election-related violence, African organizations have failed to take any meaningful action. Prof. George Ayittey, the internationally renowned Ghanaian economist and "one of the top 100 public intellectuals" who is "shaping the tenor of our time" said that the African Union is a "useless continental organization" that "can't even define 'democracy'".
Today, the AU stands on the sidelines twiddling its thumbs as thousands of Ivorians are slaughtered and Gbagbo steals the election in broad daylight. The other equally comatose organization is ECOWAS (Economic Community Of West African States). For months it has been threatening to remove Gbagbo by force if a peaceful solution could not be found. The Ivory Coast is in a virtual state of civil war and the AU and ECOWAS keep on talking with little action.
The U.S. says the AU and ECOWAS will find solutions to the stalemate in the Ivory Coast. David Wharton, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Public Diplomacy in the Bureau of African Affairs, said "what matters is not US view, but the African view". Wharton was merely towing the party line. President Obama said, "the ideal is African solutions to African problems" and "what US thinks is really less important than what the neighbourhood feels".
Recently, the President said "It is time for former President Gbagbo to heed the will of his people, and to complete a peaceful transition of power to President Ouattara. The eyes of the world are on Cote d'Ivoire." Should we expect Gbagbo to un-cling from power terrified by the Evil Eye of the world?!?
African dictators think themselves to be African gods the longer they cling to power. They demand to be worshipped and adored as living legends. For the poor and illiterate Africans, they do become the gods of fire, war, chaos, terror, anger and revenge. They become life-givers and life-takers. When they lose power -- lose elections they have rigged to win -- they visit their wrath upon their citizens. Today we witness the Wrath of Gbagbo on the Ivory Coast. If Gbagbo cannot have Cote d'Ivoire, no one can have Cote d'Ivoire.Apre moi, le deluge!
*The author is a professor of political science at California State University, San Bernardino, CA, USA. He is a lawyer specializing in American constitutional law, and the Senior Editor of the International Journal of Ethiopian Studies, a leading scholarly journal on Ethiopia.
