SOURCE Harris InteractiveThe Republicans are continuing their marathon to the finish line that is the first caucus with debates and straw polls. And, as might be expected in such a marathon, the leaders will change as the race moves towards that line. Among Republicans, over one in five (22%) say they would vote for Texas Governor Rick Perry while just under one in five (18%) would vote for former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney. The nearest challengers are all under 10% - Ron Paul (7%), Sarah Palin (7%), and Michele Bachmann (7%). The rest of the field falls out as Herman Cain (5%), Newt Gingrich (4%), Jon Huntsman (1%) and Rick Santorum (1%) with over one-quarter of Republicans (28%) still undecided.
These are some of the results of The Harris Poll of 2,462 adults surveyed online between September 12 and 19, 2011 by Harris Interactive.
Among Independents, who can vote in some Republican primaries, the lead changes. Mitt Romney claims the top spot (15%) followed by Ron Paul (12%). Rick Perry falls to third place at 11% with all other candidates at 6% or less. But, over two in five Independents (43%) are not at all sure who they would vote for in the Republican primary.
Among Conservatives, over one-third (35%) are still not at all sure which candidate they would vote for in a primary. One in five, however, would vote for Rick Perry (21%) while 14% would vote for Mitt Romney. All other candidates are under 10% among Conservatives. Looking at those who say they support the Tea Party, Perry is the top choice for one-quarter (24%) while 14% would vote for Mitt Romney and 9% for Ron Paul. All other candidates are at 7% or less and over one-quarter (28%) say they are not at all sure which candidate they would vote for in the Republican primary.
Republicans versus Obama
Looking ahead to the general election, there are two candidates who would beat President Obama and one who would make it a very close race. If Mitt Romney was the Republican nominee, he would win over President Obama 53% to 47%. If Ron Paul was the Republican nominee, he would beat President Obama 51% to 49%. The Republican candidate that would make this a tight race for President Obama is Rick Perry. If he was the nominee, the President would win 51% to 49%. Among the rest of the possible Republican nominees, President Obama would win with 54% against Michele Bachmann, Rick Santorum, Jon Huntsman or Herman Cain, he would win with 55% of the vote against Newt Gingrich and with 57% of the vote against Sarah Palin.
So What?
The Republican nomination is a moving target full of twists and turns. The post-mortems on debates could move the needle as could who wins a straw poll. With Herman Cain's surprise win in a Florida straw poll, will that give him a bump in the standings? Or is the Perry versus Romney story the one that dominates the standings? And, there is still talk about possible new entries into the race. In a few short months the field will be set, but at this stage fluidity is still the norm.
