As the Republican primaries continue, the drumbeat is sounding louder and louder for those not in the lead to concede to Mitt Romney. One main reason is so the focus can turn to the general election in the fall as the four remaining Republicans are currently losing to President Obama by between 8 and 19 points.
These are some of the results of The Harris Poll of 2,451 adults surveyed online between March 12 and 19, 2012 by Harris Interactive.
As the race narrows down to the final candidate who will face President Obama in November, just half of Americans (52%) say they are satisfied with the choices available to them for President while more than two in five (43%) are not satisfied. Just over half of Republicans (52%) are satisfied and 45% are not satisfied while Independents are reversed as 52% are not satisfied with the candidates and 41% are. Two-thirds of Democrats (66%), however, say they are satisfied with the choices available to them for President.
Head to head match-ups
If the presidential election were held today, 47% of Americans would vote for President Obama, 39% would vote for Mitt Romney and 14% are not at all sure. Last month, 46% said they would vote for President Obama while 37% said they would vote for Mitt Romney. Among Independents, it's a closer race with 43% voting for the President and 41% voting for the former governor and 48% of adults in the 2012 Swing States (Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia) voting for President Obama and 41% voting for Mitt Romney.
He may be jockeying for front-runner status but the former Senator from Pennsylvania is ten points behind the President. Almost half of Americans would vote for President Obama (48%) while 38% would vote for Rick Santorum and 15% are not at all sure. Among Independents, 45% would vote for President Obama and 36% for Santorum with 19% not at all sure. In the 2012 Swing states, 51% would vote for the President while 35% would vote for Santorum.
Looking at the other two main contenders in the Republican primary, over one-third (36%) would vote for Ron Paul and 45% would vote for President Obama while 19% are not at all sure. Among Independents, Paul is ahead 40% to the President's 39%. Finally, half of Americans (50%) would vote for President Obama and three in ten (31%) for Newt Gingrich with 18% not at all sure. Among Independents, President Obama leads Newt Gingrich 50% to 30% with 20% not at all sure and among people in the 2012 Swing states President Obama leads Newt Gingrich 52% to 31% with 17% not at all sure.
Consequences of the Republican primary
As the Republican primary continues, what does this do to Republican chances in the fall? Half of Americans (50%) say the current Republican primary has hurt Republican chances of winning the presidential election while 19% say it has helped. And, it is not just the presidential election as two in five U.S. adults (40%) believe the primary has hurt Republican chances of winning Congressional elections and 19% believe it has helped. There is also the national political dialogue and almost half (46%) say the Republican primary has hurt that while 16% say it has helped it.
Republicans are less pessimistic than Democrats or Independents on their chances in the fall. While 70% of Democrats and 51% of Independents say the primary has hurt Republican chances of winning the presidential election, only one-third of Republicans (32%) feel that way. Looking at the congressional elections, two-thirds of Democrats (66%) and almost half of Independents (46%) say the primary has hurt the Republican chances of winning these elections come November compared to one-quarter of Republicans (27%) who think so.
So What?
As the Republican race continues, there will eventually be a winner. But, for now, the winner of the Republican primary appears to be the Democrat – President Obama. In the fall, it was a tight race between the President and Mitt Romney. Now, the President has an 8 point lead. The longer the primary continues the more damage it appears to be doing to the eventual Republican nominee. But, looking back 4 years, the Democratic primary was still being contested into April and the victor there was the victor in November as well.
Methodology
This Harris Poll was conducted online within the United States between March 12 and 19, 2012 among 2,451 adults (aged 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, region and household income were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents' propensity to be online.
